However, Justin has a way of being both incredibly inspirational and face-palming naïve (I started volunteer work with the Liberals the same day that Bill C-51 was passed, and don't think that did not have a negative impact on us all), and I believe that he will rise from this awkward moment a wiser man. I don't believe that he is a fool. Inexperienced, perhaps, but the crucible of office will fix that.
What's more, I believe that short of catching Justin in bed with a dead girl, a live boy, and a drunk llama, we're pretty much stuck with him. I expect his re-election in 2019, and that the Liberals will remain in power into the 2020s. By then I expect the opposition to have gotten its act together---maybe.
I am not sanguine about that.
His only competition is between a rock and a hard place
Tom Mulcair's campaign returned the NDP from being the official opposition to its well-worn position as Canada's third party. Now, I do not believe that it was entirely for reasons of his doing (Harper's dirty niqab trick torched support in Quebec, which was the only weapon at his disposal). However, Mulcair inarguably pushed the NDP closer to the center, if not the right, than too many of the NDP's supporters or potential supporters would have liked. And while many would love to draw blood at the party's next conference, there is nobody in the party to replace him.
And if they could replace him, how exactly is the NDP supposed to run against another lefty government? What could they bring to the table that Trudeau has not? I think Muclair is tactically moving to the left in order to court support on the left, support that he has alienated. He does have a reputation as a pragmatist. But, again, what can he do that the Liberals can't? Given Canada's economic situation the idea of balanced budgets is a quaint idea, but not going to happen until things turn around. I don't believe that Mulcair wouldn't be a good leader. But enough in his party are unconvinced, and sticking with him out of necessity. Getting endorsements from the centre-right is not going to sit well with them.
Now, his big advantage is that he's going to be in Ottawa for the whole of Trudeau's term, while the Conservatives lack a permanent leader at this time, and won't get one for the latter half of his term. Layton proved moving from third party to opposition is not impossible; but a huge chunk of 2011's Orange Crush involved the Liberals being, frankly, dumb as a bag of hammers. And Trudeau is not an idiot---a pollyana, at worst, but not an idiot. Trans Pacific Partnership is certainly in the party's wheelhouse, given the potential economic impacts on the country. But their best hope is a simultaneous Liberal and Tory meltdown. Not impossible, but hopelessly unlikely.
His other source of competition is in leadership disarray
Peter McKay is, so far, the only candidate (aside from Kevin O'Leary, a sign of barrel scraping if there ever was one) who is ahead of the polls. He hasn't confirmed that he wants the job, and he's hardly invulnerable, with baggage from the Harper administration. Still, the fact nobody else is polling even close to him is a sign of how depleted the Conservative party is regarding potential leaders.
Even if Rona Ambrose turns out to be a hit, she can't run for party leadership; and Jason Kenny, frankly, is not going to set Canada on fire. After all, Canada turfed Harper after nine years, four of which involved giving him complete power over the government. I doubt they're just itching to put a Harper clone in power again. I do not think they are oblivious to this fact.
The party has adopted a "big tent," even "stadium" approach to leadership candidates that are currently not part of the Conservative party. All right in theory. But the problem with a "stadium" approach is that you risk importing the peanut gallery. If Kevin O'Leary, Doug Ford, or (God forbid) both enter the leadership race, the CPC risks being rejected by most Canadians for a decade or more, depending on how serious the Conservatives take rebuilding their approach. And trust me, from both a Torontonian and a Olivia Chow campaign volunteer, it is going to be impossible to keep Doug Ford out if he wants it badly enough.
The resulting storm will not be pretty.
The Conservatives are divided between Alberta and Canada
A lot of talk has been made of either Ambrose or Kenney returning to Alberta to "unite the right" against Rachel Notley. Ambrose is supposed to be the better of the two, and certainly the Federal Tory who should be in the race, since there would be limited opportunities after a new leader takes over. However, should Kenney or someone else run, it risks dividing the party's focus between Ottawa and Alberta---and at a critical time to do so.
Look, I'm not saying that its impossible to be an Albertan conservative and being unable to vote for both at the same time. But with all the attention devoted to a conservative renaissance in Alberta and the demands of unseating Trudeau, something's going to give. I do expect the media being more interested in Kenney trying to be premier than prime minister, and I doubt that the schizophrenia will do the conservatives any good, especially amongst the grass roots that the Tories will be relying upon. If the Tories have built their foundation too much upon Alberta and Western Canada---and I suspect they have---then they may have to choose between the two as to which they want the most.
So, the era of Trudeau returns to Canada, like it or not (and, so far, I like it). It will run its course, as such things do. But I do not believe that it will come to a screeching halt. A decline, for sure, but Justin will really have to drop the ball to get Canadians in the mood to turf him, not when he does more things right than wrong.
And the opposition will need to pull their socks up. Best of luck to them.
